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The National Association of Home Builders’ state projections show average remodeling spending growth was 0.0% in the second quarter of 2026. Spending fell in 26 states and rose in 24, while only North Carolina and Illinois among the 10 states with the largest remodeling market shares recorded growth.
Remodeling spending was flat on average across U.S. states in the second quarter of 2026, with declines in 26 states and increases in 24, according to the National Association of Home Builders’ State Projections of Remodeling. The findings point to a steady remodeling market amid a broader housing slowdown, though results varied by state and growth was limited among the largest markets.
The NAHB’s State Projections of Remodeling (SPR) put the average state growth rate at 0.0% for the quarter. The figures describe estimated changes in remodeling spending, not a uniform result across the country: slightly more states recorded declines than gains, but the overall state average was even.
Among the 10 states with the largest shares of the remodeling market, only North Carolina and Illinois posted growth, NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz said. The report did not provide state-by-state spending totals or the size of the increases and declines in the material supplied by Hardware Retailing.
The SPR offers quarterly, state-by-state estimates of remodeling spending, market share and spending changes. NAHB says its proprietary statistical model combines national quarterly home-improvement spending data, multiple state-level indicators and the association’s annual state remodeling forecast.
Flat Spending Shapes Remodeler Outlook
The flat average suggests remodelers and businesses supplying building materials faced a market without broad-based spending growth in Q2, even as results differed among states. The 26 state declines and 24 increases show why a national average alone may not reflect conditions in a particular market.
NAHB attributed pressure on projects to rising construction costs and weak consumer sentiment. For homeowners, those conditions can weigh on decisions about whether to start or expand a renovation. For retailers and contractors, uneven local demand may make national trends less useful than state-level conditions when planning staffing, inventory and project pipelines.
The report also describes longer-term support for remodeling, including older homes, accumulated home equity and homeowners choosing to age in place. Those factors are an outlook, not evidence that spending has already begun to rise: the reported second-quarter average remained flat.
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Confidence and Long-Term Demand
NAHB’s Remodeling Market Index, which measures remodeler confidence, has remained above 60 for the past year, according to the report. That reading offers a separate measure from the SPR’s spending estimates: confidence holding steady does not mean quarterly spending increased.
NAHB expects remodeling to grow in coming years as home equity helps more owners pay for projects, including modifications that support aging in place. The association also points to the mortgage rate lock-in effect, which can make some homeowners more likely to improve their current homes rather than move. These are factors behind its longer-term outlook, not a forecast of a specific Q2 spending change.
The industry has expanded over time by NAHB’s count. At the start of 2025, the United States had 128,000 remodeling firms, compared with 69,000 in 2000. The figures provide longer-term industry context but do not measure the number of firms that entered or left the market during Q2 2026.
State-Level Spending Details Missing
The source material gives the number of states with gains and declines but does not provide the individual state growth rates, dollar amounts or size of the overall market. It is therefore not possible from these figures to determine which states had the largest changes or how much the gains and losses offset one another.
The reported 0.0% is the average growth rate across states; the source does not specify a separate national dollar-weighted growth rate. The SPR relies partly on a statistical model, and the material does not give model uncertainty ranges or revised estimates. The report also does not quantify how much construction costs or consumer sentiment affected spending.
Next Quarterly Remodeling Estimates
The next indication of whether flat activity continued will come from a subsequent quarterly release of NAHB’s State Projections of Remodeling. Until then, the Q2 figures establish the latest reported state-level pattern but do not show whether spending began to recover later in 2026.
NAHB’s stated expectation is that remodeling will grow in the years ahead, supported by home equity and demand for aging-in-place upgrades. That remains a forecast; the association’s next estimates will provide a clearer measure of whether those longer-term supports are translating into spending growth.
Key Questions
Did remodeling spending increase in Q2 2026?
Not on average across states. NAHB reported an average growth rate of 0.0%; spending declined in 26 states and increased in 24.
Which large remodeling markets recorded growth?
Among the 10 states with the largest shares of the remodeling market, North Carolina and Illinois were the only ones reported to have growth. The supplied report does not list their growth rates.
What does the 0.0% figure measure?
It is the average growth rate across states in the Q2 2026 State Projections of Remodeling. The source does not describe it as a national, dollar-weighted spending growth rate.
Why does NAHB expect remodeling to grow over time?
NAHB points to home equity gains, an aging housing stock, mortgage rate lock-in and more homeowners aging in place as potential supports for future demand. These are longer-term expectations, while the Q2 average was flat.
Source: hardwareretailing.com
